Forest (a) - It starts again...

The 2013/14 season kicks off this Saturday and for us it's a visit to The City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The last time we began a campaign in Nottingham was in 2010/11 when we were impressive in a 3-0 victory against Notts County. However, our most recent visit to the city in February was one to forget as we were beaten 6-1, with the biggest tits on display that evening representing Town rather than Hooters.

That heavy defeat last season was the first game in charge of Huddersfield for Mark Robins, while it was the first victory for Billy Davies since returning to manage Forest. Radoslaw Majewski scored a hat-trick and the final result did not flatter a Forest team who in all honesty could have scored more. Town's collapse that evening was something we saw on a number of occasions last season, but under Robins we eventually managed to improve a dire defence and achieve survival.

Despite losing heavily at Forest and a couple of weeks later at Brighton, Robins definitely made an early impact when appointed. Town took 10 points from a possible 18 in his first six games and we also won three of our last five games to ensure we finished outside of the bottom three. We averaged 1.4 points per game under Robins, an average which would have seen us finish 10th had we managed it all season. The task now is to continue improving and make sure we're not in a relegation battle next May.

Improvements at Town

Robins, alongside Dean Hoyle, Nigel Clibbens and Ross Wilson, has certainly made moves to improve the squad. Cult hero James Vaughan has signed a permanent deal with the club following his successful loan spell, while Martin Paterson and Jon Stead both signed on free transfers to provide more firepower. Adam Hammill is another former loanee to complete a permanent move while Jonathan Hogg signed from Watford earlier this week to bolster a lightweight midfield. Our midfield and attack are definitely improved on what we had at our disposal last season.

A major concern for Town fans however is that we haven't really made any moves to improve what was the worst defence in the Championship last season excluding the teams who were relegated. On his day Joel Lynch is our best central defender so a lot of hope hinges on him finding the form which impressed fans upon his arrival last term. Most fans are adament that a defender will be signed in the near future, and if a good one can be acquired all areas of the squad will have been strengthened. A solid defence would be a great backbone for our improved attack.

No matter what squad improvements have been made, the aim again should be survival. It's pivotal that we become accustomed to Championship football to grow as a club. We must maintain our status in England's second tier, and grow year on year. Improvement this season would be to avoid a relegation battle come May - we could end up with less points than last season but be comfortably above the drop zone - that would be progress. We have a Championship infrastructure, and in my opinion we have a decent Championship squad, so survival is very attainable.

Improvements at Forest
Our opponents this weekend have very different objectives for the season. If you follow pretty much any Forest fan on Twitter they'll tell you they're confident of promotion (as well as talking about Derby A LOT). They have every reason to be positive too - they had a very strong squad which under-performed to a certain degree last season, and have made some very smart acquisitions during the summer. Jack Hobbs, Jamie Mackie and Gonzalo Jara in particular stand out as top quality signings at this level. Forest also signed long-time Town target Jamie Paterson from Walsall.

Forest are as short as 7/2 to be promoted to the Premier League (Town are 20/1 by comparison) and in Billy Davies they have a manager who knows the club very well. His return was celebrated by fans and he made an instant impact - after failing to win in his first two games he led Forest to six consecutive league wins, beginning with the 6-1 mauling of Town. At one point Forest looked as though they might even threaten the top two but their form tailed off worryingly to the end of the season. They finished just one point off the playoffs after winning only one of their last eight games.

They'll need to get off to a good start this season if they're to keep up with the teams fighting at the top of the table. This season looks like it will be the most competitive it's been in a while at the top end with all three relegated teams looking very strong while Forest, Leicester, Bolton and Watford all have ambitions to finish in the top two. Forest were arguably the most impressive team we played last season over two games - it's between them and Leicester for me - and they head into this weekend as heavy favourites. Forest to score four or more at 10/1 does look tempting.

Does a good start guarantee success?
Our last five opening games of the season, along with our league performance thereafter, are below:
12/13: Cardiff 1 TOWN 0 - Finished 19th
11/12: TOWN 1 Bury 1 - Finished 4th (promoted)
10/11: Notts County 0 TOWN 3 - Finished 3rd
09/10: Southend United 2 TOWN 2 - Finished 6th
08/09: Stockport County 1 TOWN 1 - Finished 9th

A good start won't necessarily mean a good season. On the three occasions we've won in the last ten years we haven't been promoted once, while our two promotion campaigns started with draws. Likewise the three opening day losses we've suffered haven't resulted in relegation - there's nothing much to read into opening day results as teams can improve, or regress over the course of a 46 game season. Indeed we kicked off the 2005/06 season with a 2-1 defeat at The City Ground but finished three places above Forest.

At the end of September last season Town were top of the league after seven games having just beaten then on-fire Blackpool at Bloomfield Road. At the same time Peterborough United had lost all seven of their opening games. However, deep into the second half of our final game of the season we were stuck below Posh who had found great form after their dire start while we had suffered a terrible slump after a bright start. Point being - a good start is nice but eventually counts for nothing unless you're consistent across 46 games.

Head to head
We've conceded an alarming 13 goals in our last three visits to The City Ground - last season's 6-1 hammering was preceded by a 2-1 defeat in 2008 while in 2007 we were thumped 5-1. Last season's loss was one of a number of collapses, we were 1-0 up but ended up being lucky to concede only six with Radoslaw Majewski netting a hat-trick. We haven't had much luck against Forest at all in recent seasons as we've currently gone six league games without a win, a record any Town fan would be delighted to end on Saturday.

We haven't managed to claim three points at The City Ground since we claimed a 3-1 win in December 2000. Kevin Gallen scored two and Peter Ndlovu got the other on a Wednesday night on that occasion. That was the exception rather than the rule though in recent meetings as as we've only four of the last 19 meetings between the two teams. Our best run against Forest was a long, long time ago. We went 10 games without defeat between 1920 and 1952, winning eight of those games. Overall head to head record: TOWN (16), Forest (12), Draw (12).

Predictions
I'm not going to predict the team that Mark Robins will pick this weekend, I'm going to give the team that I'd like to see play. The defence picks itself with Gerrard injured and no new defender yet signed (at the time of writing). I'd play Hogg in the middle with Norwood and Clayton, with Clayton allowed to push further forward. Scannell and Hammill are both better than Ward in my opinion, while Vaughan picks himself as our best centre forward.

Robins likes to play a 4-2-3-1 system with one striker, two deep midfielders, and three attacking midfielders (two wingers and one player linking up play between midfield and striker). However, our defence remains leaky and Forest are a VERY good team, so for those reasons I'd lose the advanced midfielder - Paterson has played this role in pre-season - and have three deeper midfielders, with Hammill and Scannell offering the ability to run the ball out on the counter attack.

Right, scoreline prediction. We certainly look better going forward and have been more creative in pre-season so I believe we have goals in us. However, unless we sign a central defender soon we will still leak goals like a sieve. My prediction therefore - 4-2 TO FOREST.

How do we look for the coming season?

With pre-season in full swing it's a good time to look at our squad heading into the 2013/14 season. Are the players we've signed better than the ones we let go? Have we strengthened in the areas where we were weakest last season? Are we in better shape than we were in May? All questions I'll attempt to answer.

The obvious weakness in our squad once last season had finished was up front. James Vaughan and Jermaine Beckford, both superb towards the end of the campaign, returned to their parent clubs while Lee Novak and Alan Lee were allowed to leave the club at the end of their respective contracts. Daniel Carr and James Spencer were the only two recognised strikers on our books, and recognised is being generous to both players.

Mark Robins has certainly addressed this issue with the signings of James Vaughan, Martin Paterson and Town old boy Jon Stead. Vaughan is certainly the most popular of those three players but all three come with decent reputations and in my opinion strengthen our squad. Vaughan was our Player of the year last season and his signing was a huge coup, while Paterson and Stead are better than the outgoing Novak and Lee.

Below are quick reviews of all three new strikers from fans who have seen them at close quarters very recently. Thanks to the people who helped out with this, and be sure to give them all a follow on Twitter!

James Vaughan - Signed from Norwich City (undisclosed)

@Terrier1987cas The only doubt surrounding Vaughan is his fitness - his style of play means he's susceptible to injury so at times we have to wrap him up in cotton wool, and occasional niggles are almost inevitable. Put that concern aside however and you have nothing but positives. Vaughan finished last season as top goalscorer with 14 goals and also won the Player of the season award, but I believe we've yet to see the best of him. He certainly has more goals in him and I don't see any reason why he can't hit 20+ this season if he remains fit, but he also offers work-rate and intelligence that we've lacked previously. Everyone knew this was the signing that needed to happen, and thankfully it has.

Last 3 seasons:
2010/11 Crystal Palace (Championship): 30 appearances, 9 goals
2011/12 Norwich City (Premier League): 5 appearances, 0 goals
2012/13 Huddersfield (Championship): 33 appearances, 14 goals

Jonathan Stead - Signed from Bristol City (free transfer)

@TheExiledRobin "There was an element of concern when Stead signed, someone who's career appeared to be on a downward trajectory and of whom the main memories were long barren runs in the Premier League. Thankfully, he leaves us three years later as one of the most popular players to have pulled on the red shirt in recent memory. If you want a 25 goal a season striker Stead isn't your man, his good work is in the build up to the goal, working the pitch to its limits and stretching defences. Very few players leave a club without at least a minority saying good riddance - however in this case, across hundreds of tweets and forum posts, there was not a single dissenting voice."

Last 3 seasons:
2010/11 Bristol City (Championship): 32 appearances, 10 goals
2011/12 Bristol City (Championship): 25 appearances, 6 goals
2012/13 Bristol City (Championship): 30 appearances, 5 goals

Martin Paterson - Signed from Burnley (free transfer)

@Wilson97Josh "Paterson was known at Burnley for his work-rate and determination, but he is far more than that. He has a talent for finding space to run into and isn't afraid to exploit it. His best season for us was 2008/09 when he contributed 12 goals to our promotion to the Premier League, with a few of them being great long range strikes.
@ClaretMarty "I've never seen Paterson give anything less than 100%. Ironically, after playing like a terrier for years he's finally become one! He was forced to play out wide in our Premier League season but never complained and continued to be a crowd favourite. He's a player who belongs up front, hopefully he'll get that chance at Huddersfield."

Last 3 seasons:
2010/11 Burnley (Championship): 14 appearances, 3 goals
2011/12 Burnley (Championship): 15 appearances, 3 goals
2012/13 Burnley (Championship): 39 appearances, 8 goals

There is certainly still a debate to be had as to whether we have replaced Beckford, who was definitely the out and out goalscorer of the team whose goals made a huge difference to our survival bid. Despite spending much of his loan spell with us injured he had clear quality in front of goal and when fit and firing was a huge player for us. Of the three strikers we've signed only Vaughan has scored more than 10 goals in the past three seasons, and even then only once.

Reading the above views of Bristol City and Burnley fans it seems clear than neither Stead or Paterson have been used as out and out strikers in recent years. Stead is very much a man who likes to be involved in the build up to goals while Paterson has been played out wide despite his favoured position being up front. I definitely think Paterson will take a more central role for Town while I also think there are more goals to come from Vaughan who can definitely add to his 14 goals last term.

Another position most people agreed we needed to strengthen was on the wings. Danny Ward and Sean Scannell were the only two out and out wingers in the squad at the end of last season. With only two wingers we would be very weak if either picked up an injury or suspension, and we'd probably have to sacrifice Adam Clayton to play out wide despite his best position being in the centre of midfield. This is something else Robins has addressed and he's brought in a player he's very familiar with.

Adam Hammill - Signed from Wolves (undisclosed)

@ChrisRyder_ "I would definitely have had him back here. He played his best football at Barnsley under Robins, I expect big things from him this season if he knuckles down."
@BarnsleyBoy96 "He will find his way again under Robins if he gets a decent run in the team. He's a fantastic wing player and is at his best when he can run at the defence."
@Ryan_Wingrove "Very good at long range shooting and very tricky on the ball. He's a good all-round winger who will get plenty of balls into the box as well as contributing goals himself.

Last 3 seasons:
2010/11 Wolves (Premier League): 10 appearances, 0 goals
2011/12 Wolves (Premier League): 9 appearances, 0 goals
2012/13 Huddersfield (Championship): 16 appearances, 2 goals

First off, I'll say that Hammil's loan spell with Town last season was unremarkable at best. However, I'll also say that I wouldn't read anything into that as I expect the Hammill we see this coming season to be a very different player. Robins knows Adam well and will get the best out of him, proven by the winger's superb form for Barnsley when Robins was in charge and evidenced by the views of Barnsley fans above. At times last season we cried out for a match winner, and I think Hammill will be just that if he's reinvigorated under Robins.

Those additions leave us with a current first team squad of:

GK - Smithies, Bennett
DF - Hunt, Woods, Dixon, Clarke, Lynch, Gerrard, Wallace
MF - Ward, Scannell, Hammill, Clayton, Southern, Norwood, Gobern
ST - Vaughan, Stead, Paterson

I know we have young players like Carr, Holmes and Sinnott who some fans want to see given a run in the first team, but I've stuck to established first team players who are all but guaranteed to feature prominently. There's no doubt that those young players will serve a purpose at some point this season, but I see that purpose being filling the bench when we're short of players. The last thing we should be looking to do is rely on these youngsters in any kind of major way, as they're simply not ready.

Looking at that squad it's clear that we're still quite light in terms of numbers, so I expect possibly another signing and at least two loanees arriving before the end of August. I'd like to see a young striker brought in on loan to offer competition for places, while a centre back and attack-minded midfielder would also be high up my priorities list. We've so far only strengthened up front so I'd be surprised if Robins decided he was 100% happy with the defence and midfield that finished last season.

The major question them remains: are we in better shape now than we were at the end of last season? I'd say yes, although I think we all still have doubts, especially over a defence which leaves plenty to be desired. I've never been a fan of Peter Clarke, while Lynch and Gerrard both have plenty to prove after stop/start first seasons with Town. A top class centre back would be top of my shopping list now, someone in the ilk of Sean Morrison (highly unlikely I know) as well as a midfielder with a bit more creativity moving forward than our current crop.

Although the signings we've made have improved the squad, I think the biggest plus heading into this season is that we will have had a full pre-season under Mark Robins. He was one of three managers I wanted when Grayson got sacked and he turned us around magnificently under difficult circumstances last season. I'm very intrigued to see where he can take us and expect to see a very different team travel to Nottingham on the opening day of the season to the one that got battered in his first game as Town manager.

Finally... Vaughan will tear you apart again

Has there ever been a more universally liked player at Town than James Vaughan? I certainly can't think of anyone. There might have been players who were fan favourites because they played the game well, but Vaughan is something different, he's someone who connects with fans on a human level. His contributions with the ball are massive, but his impact off the ball is just as important, and the combination of the two make him something of a cult hero in West Yorkshire.

It was Vaughan's equaliser in the 81st minute against Barnsley that finally secured our Championship status for at least another season, and he also scored a hat-trick the week before to put us in a great position going into that memorable final day. Overall he bagged 14 times in 33 starts - a fantastic record in a team fighting at the wrong end of the table creating few goalscoring opportunities. Equally as fantastic is the fact that he went the entire season without picking up a serious injury.

Upon his arrival from Norwich on loan in late August he was instantly labelled 'sicknote', it was to be expected that his previous injury record would be used against him. Watching him in action it was immediately obvious why he'd picked up more knocks than your average centre forward. Lung-bursting runs across the width of the pitch to harass defenders, physical aerial duels with giant centre backs, and putting his body on the line at every opportunity are all vital parts of his game.

It was therefore certainly a gamble that we took when bringing him in on loan for the rest of the season. Had he picked up a serious injury early on we'd have still had to pay his wages to the end of the season, and one would hazard a guess that his wages were significant for a club of our size. After a few early scares however his fitness wasn't a problem at all - there was always an underlying fear when watching him play that he'd get injured but nothing ever materialised, and long may that stay the same!

Vaughan's impact last season cannot be underplayed in any way - we would have been relegated long before his goal on the last day of the season without him. His contribution was much more than goals though, he's an influential figure to both fans and teammates alike, and he offers immense work-rate mixed with genuine intelligence. He covers a ridiculous amount of grass during 90 minutes, but he does so for a reason - whether it be closing down defenders, offering an outlet when we're under pressure, or creating space for fellow attackers, his movement off the ball is outstanding and much needed.

Indeed his impact was evident from the very beginning. In our opening 10 games last season, six featured James Vaughan. We were unbeaten in those six games, amassing 16 points from a possible 18 while in the games he didn't play we didn't win once, taking a single point from a possible 12. That trend continued, albeit to a lesser extent as we went on a torrid run with Simon Grayson losing the plot completely, throughout the season. With Vaughan on the pitch we were a much better team because he's the focal point of everything good that we do.

He was always going to be a success at Town, it seemed inevitable from the beginning as fans took an instant like to the former Everton player who is the youngest ever Premier League goalscorer. He constantly showed an immense appreciation for the support he received from fans, with celebrations in front of supporters like after the Burnley game at Turf Moor going a long way to cementing his 'cult hero' status. Perhaps the final tipping point for him becoming a true hero was his late winner at Elland Road and the epic celebration that followed, beating them meant just as much to him as it did to us!

It's difficult to say whether signing Vaughan will result in further season card sales, or whether shirts with 'VAUGHAN - 9' on the back will start flying off the shelves, but one thing it will do is create a huge buzz among the fans and playing staff. Everyone knew that this was the deal that needed to happen, everyone knew how important he was to us last season and how important he would be to us if we managed to secure his signature. Well he's here, he's a Huddersfield Town player for the next three seasons at least, and our prospects for the coming season are much greater for it.

It's a shame that we won't get to see Jermaine Beckford alongside Vaughan again, but the signings of Stead and Paterson mean we have more quality up front than we did last season. Between the three of them, and a loan addition that I feel will be added, we have more than enough firepower to make a real impact this season. I'm not going to say that we will be challenging at the top end of the table because the league is even more competitive this season that it was last season, but I certainly don't expect us to struggle again.

A final congratulations has to go to Dean Hoyle, Nigel Clibbens, Ross Wilson and Mark Robins for making Vaughan at home during his spell on loan last season, and doing what was necessary to secure his signature. We've got a great infrastructure at the club now and this signing, and also the signing of Paterson who turned down 'bigger' clubs to sign for Town, shows that we can attract top drawer players to Leeds Road. Plenty doubted whether or not we could bring Vaughan here permanently, but we have and for that we must be grateful to the people who are in charge at the club.

One last thing, corner flags everywhere beware because... Vaughan will tear you apart again!