Saturday 26 January 2013

2 candidates stand above all others

When looking for the right man to replace Simon Grayson, Dean Hoyle could do worse than to look at the the way Swansea have risen from League Two to the Premier League in just seven years. Huw Jenkins became Swans chairman in 2004 and has appointed a string of forward thinking managers such as Roberto Martinez, Brendan Rodgers and Michael Laudrup. In recent years only managers who share Jenkins philosophy of attractive football have been appointed. 

Attractive, possession orientated football. What us Town fans would give to have a manager who shared these ideals. We were promised something similar when Lee Clark was appointed manager in 2008, and things started off well in his first game in charge against Hereford United as we passed the ball out from defence. Town played good football for the next 18 or so months but after the Playoff defeat to Millwall we became much more direct and unattractive, until Clark was eventually dismissed twelve months ago.

It took longer for us to start playing under Simon Grayson, but the most important thing was that he got us promoted to The Championship. Once we arrived in the second tier Grayson seemed to favour an approach which was more pleasant on the eye. Although we went direct when we needed to, Town were playing nice football in particular with Norwood, Clayton and Southern in the middle. As the season went on however Grayson reverted to a much more direct approach that not only led to a 12 game winless run but also some of the worst performances in recent memory.

When looking for our third manager in twelve months Dean Hoyle needs to ensure we bring in somebody who tries to play the right way. First off this will get fans back on side who have been disappointed with the football played in recent months. More importantly, the players we have at the club are suited to playing football on the deck instead of going direct constantly. Good footballers such as Norwood and Clayton, although struggling for form anyway, haven't been helped at all by the style of football we've adopted.
Swansea City have appointed a number of forward-thinking managers in recent years
So who can we turn to in order to ensure we steer clear of relegation but also begin to play a style of football fans can be proud of? I've seen plenty of people saying that we need to appoint a manager with Championship experience but Roberto Martinez had no management experience at all before taking charge of Swansea, and Brendan Rodgers had only a seven month stint at Watford and a further ill-fated seven month spell with Reading before being chosen by Jenkins to take charge at the Swans. Experience for me is therefore unimportant, especially as many of the experienced names available are uninspiring to say the least.

So if experience isn't one of the key things needed from a new manager, what are the things we should be looking for? In my opinion there are three key attributes our new manager will need. They are:

1) The ability to motivate and get the best out of the players at his disposal.
2) Build a team that is solid defensively, as we've been unable to solve our defensive problems in recent years.
3) Play football the right way, and score goals as we've a terrible goalscoring record so far this season.

With those three attributes in mind I did some research into managers who could be available at the current time. After plenty of trawling through managerial records, league tables, fixture lists and anything else the internet has to offer I have come to the conclusion that there are two ideal candidates who could take Huddersfield Town forward from here. Neither are massively experienced, but both have achieved great success in the short time they've been managing in England and are known for the great football their teams play.
The number one candidate for pretty much every Town fan, Nigel Adkins has been out of work since he was inexplicably sacked by Southampton earlier this month. He definitely has the most impressive CV of any potential new manager but the question mark over him is whether we could lure him to Huddersfield. It's rumoured that Dean Hoyle has a good relationship with Adkins, and that he wants to get back into management as soon as possible, but to many he remains a long shot.

It's easy to see though why so many people see Adkins as the right man to turn around our fortunes. He achieved wonders at Scunthorpe, getting a club with average attendances barely over 4,000 and next to no budget promoted to The Championship twice in three seasons (with relegation seperating them). He then worked more wonders at Southampton, taking them from League One to the Premier League in consecutive seasons. If Adkins was to come here we would need to be realistic however, Town don't have the resources Southampton have and it would be a much longer process were we even to dream of top flight football.

Adkins gets the best out of what he has at his disposal, that can't even be debated given his achievements at Scunthorpe and Southampton. He also favours a very attractive style of football, epitomised by his Scunthorpe team scoring the most goals outside the top ten when they were relegated from The Championship. That season they had a defensive record no side would want, but upon becoming Southampton manager Adkins developed a rock solid defence which was the backbone of their success.
The second candidate I feel would be best suited to taking Town forward is a much more controversial individual who would surely split opinion, something he's done throughout his career as a player and manager. Paolo Di Canio has zero experience managing in The Championship but in his short time in charge of Swindon Town he has shown he has what it takes to be a great success as a manager. After winning the League Two title last season Swindon are now competing for their second successive promotion.

His biggest attribute for me is what many see as the reason he shouldn't be appointed. He's a character to say the least, being a self-proclaimed fascista and causing controversy wherever he goes. I won't comment on his fascist tendencies but his controversial nature is no reason for us to not consider him. He is a man who does not suffer ego's and will never accept anything less than 100% from the players who represent his team. People have said he won't get on with Dean Hoyle, but Clark and Grayson were very friendly with our chairman and ended up getting sacked, he's hiring a manager not a new best mate.

Swindons defensive record under Di Canio is ridiculous - they won League Two with the best defence in the league and now sit fourth in League One with the best defence in the league. They also play attractive football and score for fun, as any Town fan who attended our 4-1 FA Cup defeat at The County Ground last season will testify. With Swindon currently in financial uncertainty now could be the perfect time for us to approach Di Canio and let the Italian take the reigns.
There are plenty of candidates other than Adkins and Di Canio
There are obviously more candidates than the two I just mentioned, but after doing plenty of research I don't think any of them come as close to meeting the criteria. Owen Coyle has become one of the favourites for the job with the bookies, while Billy Davies is wanted by many and current caretaker manager Mark Lillis did himself no harm by leading Town to a 1-1 draw against Leicester. I don't think Lillis will be given the job unless he performs miracles in the next few days, but Owen Coyle in particular could be a very real possibility.

Whoever we appoint, Dean Hoyle needs to use Swansea City, and in particular Huw Jenkins, as an example of the way to do things. Town fans want to see attractive football as well as results, and we need to start building a long-term philosophy that will help move the club forward. Play football the right way, build a solid defence, and motivate the players at his disposal to the best of their abilities - I'm not asking for much.

Tuesday 22 January 2013

#GraysonOut? Who in?

#GraysonOut was appearing on my Twitter timeline before Saturdays defeat to Watford, but since that 4-0 humbling it is appearing a lot more. The hammering we took at Vicarage Road was our sixth defeat in 12 matches, but more damning is the fact that we haven't won any of the other six matches in that period. It's not the results which have Town fans worried about the potential of relegation, it's more the dreadful performances and lack of any sign of improvement.

Football fans are notoriously fickle - win one week and you're a hero but lose the next week and they'll be baying for blood. However, if you fail to win for two whole months, or more specifically 12 league matches, there is little hope for you. 12 games is a quarter of a season - in no sport would you be able to go a quarter of a season without a win and not be under pressure.

Simon Grayson is a man under pressure. The fans know it, and now he's acknowledged it himself. The most concerning thing about our twelve match winless run is that we've never really looked like winning of those games, and the performances have been nowhere near good enough. Luckily for Grayson his chairman Dean Hoyle seems to tolerate bad performances as Lee Clark was allowed to keep his job for a long time while performances were very poor.

Clark was eventually sacked when Hoyle confirmed he had "lost faith in his ability to win promotion", so it's sensible to think that Grayson will be sacked when his boss loses faith in his ability to avoid relegation. Town currently sit seven points above the relegation zone with 33 points, but with only 6 points and a goal difference of -17 in our last 12 games it's difficult to see where the next win will come from. Our fixtures don't get any easier either, our next six matches are all against teams above us in the league.

If we are still winless after those six matches I don't think Grayson will be afforded any more time to turn things around. We've made huge losses in recent years and promotion to the Championship was part of a long-term vision to make the club self-sustainable - we simply can't afford to get relegated. It will cost Hoyle if he decided to sack his second manager in 12 months, but that cost would be fractional compared to the cost of relegation to England's third tier, where we spent seven consecutive seasons before that Wembley win in May.

So let's say Grayson doesn't turn things around, after all there is currently nothing to suggest he will. When we sacked Clark most fans wanted Warnock but we instead turned to former Leeds manager Grayson, who to his credit got us promoted at the first time of asking, lest we forget. This time around I've picked out three managers who would be popular appointments, to me at least:
The number one choice for pretty much every Town fan would be the man recently sacked in bizarre circumstances by Southampton, Nigel Adkins. He certainly has the most impressive CV out of all the potential candidates. Two League Of Wales titles with Bangor City, two promotions in three years (relegation separated them) with Scunthorpe United, and successive promotions with Southampton which took them from League One to the Premier League in just two seasons (they were also three points above the relegation zone when he was sacked).

His teams are known for playing football the right way, playing attractive possession football whenever possible. This is something that will definitely excite Town fans at the minute given the hoof and hope style of play we've adopted over the past few months. A win record of more than 50% over a ten year managerial career, and four promotions in six seasons managing in England, certainly have him as most Town fans ideal candidate to take up the reigns should Grayson be dismissed. Whether he could be tempted to come here now his stock is so high is open to debate.
Once Adkins is out of the equation it becomes a bit more difficult to find an ideal replacement. I've seen plenty of names mentioned but many to me seem unappealing. For me we have to get someone who has experience at this level, which rules out lower league manager such as Paul Tisdale who many have taken a liking to. For me the next best man for the job would be Billy Davies, who does indeed have plenty of experience managing in the Championship. We need a bit of fight right now and a manager who can motivate the players, Davies could be that man.

After departing Motherwell in 2002 Davies moved south to manage Preston North End, where he overachieved by taking them to the playoffs in consecutive seasons. After leaving Preston for Derby County Davies again overachieved by getting them promoted to the Premier League. Derby had a woeful season in the top flight and Davies left by mutual consent after 14 games before returning to management with Nottingham Forest. Davies was sacked by Forest in 2011 after taking them to the playoffs but failing to win promotion in consecutive seasons.
Okay, I did just say we shouldn't appoint a manager without Championship experience, and Di Canio has only managed in Leagues One and Two, but for him I'll bend the rules. The Italian, who is best known for his playing days in the Premier League (although he also played for Italian giants Juventus and Milan), is doing a very good job currently at Swindon. Although it's hard to see him getting on with businessman and Town chairman Dean Hoyle, there's no denying he's the type who could get a reaction from our players where Grayson is currently failing.

One of the key contributors to our current terrible form is our ability to surrender matches feebly without a fight. We can look okay one minute but as soon as we concede one goal it could end up three, four, five or six. Di Canio wouldn't have that - Swindon won League Two last season with the best defence in the division and currently sit third in League One with the best defence in the division. A win record of 58.2%, a history of keeping things solid at the back, and the ability to motivate - just what Town need.

For Grayson to be dismissed Hoyle will first have to lose faith in his current managers ability to keep us in the Championship, but if performances remain the same it won't be much longer before that happens. If Grayson isn't the man to stop the rot, Dean will have two incredibly tough decisions to make. First dismissing his second manager in 12 months, then finding a replacement.

Monday 14 January 2013

Why Town should cash in on Jack Hunt

"If we could get £3m for Jack Hunt, I'd sell". Posting this on Twitter the other day I got a response befitting someone who'd just advocated the sale of a star player mid-season for peanuts. Luckily for me the only part of that last statement that's true is that it's the middle of the season, as Jack Hunt is not our star player and £3m is not peanuts.

Hunt has been a fan favourite ever since that lung-busting run on his debut against Arsenal, bombing down the right flank and cutting inside only to be fouled by Sebastien Squillaci who was subsequently sent off. That match was a bit of a prelude for what we'd come to expect from the Town academy graduate - once he got into his stride he was a threat going forward but before Arsenal were reduced to ten men he was a liability defensively, although taking on Andrei Arshavin on your full debut is some task.
Hunt made his debut at The Emirates Stadium in January 2011
It's two years ago now since Hunt made his full Town debut, transitioning from League Two where he'd had a loan spell with Chesterfield to League One reasonably well. We all knew he was a threat going forward and he showed it brilliantly on occasion, such as his superb last minute equaliser against Peterborough in April 2011. Hunt has been a mainstay in the Town team ever since his debut, and in that time he's consistently been our biggest threat going forward, until this season when his role has changed somewhat.

The weakness in Jacks game has always been his defensive abilities. The modern game has evolved and a full-back is now used as an attacking option, but their number one priority remains to be solid defensively. Hunt was exposed regularly in League One, particularly away from home - he must still wake up in a cold sweat thinking about how easily Francois Zoko tore him to pieces at Brunton Park last season. He often falls into the trap of standing off his man too much, allowing crosses to be put into the box, and when he does commit to a challenge he is taken on far too easily by most decent wingers.
Hunts passion has never been questioned
Hunt is a home-grown talent and as such many people jump to his defence much quicker than they would if it were someone we'd signed from elsewhere. There's no doubting his passion for the club, he tries to get things going when we're not playing well and his effort is clear for all to see. However, I can't help but think we might be better off if we sold Hunt, with Swansea rumoured to be sniffing around. I certainly don't rate him as highly as Matthew Lowton who Villa paid £3m for, so if we could get a similar fee for Jack I'd be inclined to accept, assuming the scouting team could find a suitable replacement.

The biggest asset Hunt possesses is his ability to run with the ball from deep or overlap the winger and receive the ball. On occasion he's done it well this season, winning a couple of penalties and claiming a few assists earlier in the season. However as our form has disintegrated so apparently have Jacks runs down the right flank. Whether it's a lack of confidence in himself, the person in front of him, or if he's under orders from the coaching staff, he doesn't get forward as much as many fans would like. So if we're not utilising him properly anyway, why not cash in if a decent offer is on the table?
If we were to sell Hunt, a replacement would need to be brought in
Whether we sell Hunt or not will depend on two things - if the price is right, and whether or not there is a replacement available for us to bring in. I certainly wouldn't want to be left with just Calum Woods and Paul Dixon as the only natural full-backs at our disposal. If there is interest in Hunt I would imagine the scouting team are already looking at potential replacements, but if there is one available I would say Hunt has a price and if Swansea meet it he would be sold. A fee of £3m could potentially enable us to bring in a replacement full-back and strengthen in other areas too.

The losses of £5.7m last season will be fresh in Dean Hoyles mind, and even with the £8m sale of Jordan Rhodes and increased league and television revenue, the long-term sustainability of the club is most important for us to to create solid foundations. £3m for a player who cost us nothing would be great business, and I certainly don't think losing Hunt would show a lack of ambition or leave us more vulnerable to relegation than we are now, assuming a replacement could be found. That's why, in my opinion, if we can get the right fee we should cash in.

Wednesday 2 January 2013

How do we stop the rot?


Just over three months ago I travelled to Blackpool, more in hope than expectation, to watch what was probably Towns best performance of the season. We thoroughly deserved the 3-1 victory and with it being live on Sky rightly received praise from many. Some even questioned if we could follow in the footsteps of Norwich and Southampton and achieve back to back promotions.

Three wins from the next 18 matches, and more worryingly no wins in our last 10, have seen any thoughts of promotion firmly quashed. That win against Blackpool saw us move into second place, but we now find ourselves in 17th place and dropping fast. Two points per game was our ratio after we beat Blackpool, but since then we've averaged less than a point a game.

What has gone wrong?

Many people are saying there is a lack of quality in the team. However, ten of the players who started that game against Blackpool were present in the matchday squad this past weekend as we were thumped 6-1 by Leicester. They were good enough to visit then promotion favourites Blackpool and turn them over but it was a foregone conclusion that they would be hammered at the Walkers Stadium, that’s how bad we're currently performing.
Town haven't won in 10 and having lost 6-1 yesterday don't look like improving
Oliver Norwood was pivotal to that win at Blackpool, pulling the strings in the middle of the park and looking dangerous every time he stood over a set piece. However, the summer signing from Manchester United has suffered the biggest dip in form I can remember witnessing – he’s literally digressed as a footballer before our very eyes. He struggles to have any impact on a game whatsoever when he is trusted to start, which isn't often recently.

A good defence was also key to our great start to the season. In six of our first seven games we conceded one or less. Peter Clarke surprised many by looking up to the task of Championship football while Joel Lynch was lauded as an outstanding signing. Recently we’re leaking goals much easier – Peterborough, Millwall, Middlesbrough and Leeds each put at least three past us while Leicester grabbed six yesterday.

Our early season defensive stability allowed us to get a few narrow victories under our belt but now we've started leaking goals we can’t score enough to bridge the gap. The Championships top scorer has 22 goals, our top scorer has four (Clayton, Novak and Vaughan). Beckford and Vaughan on paper is a brilliant strike force, but at the minute even with the two together we don’t look like scoring.

However, that’s not exactly down to those two. Vaughan remains one of our better players when fit and Beckford has looked dangerous, but we’re giving him very few chances. Our wingers haven’t hit their stride and with Norwood playing like a Northern Irish Joey Gudjonsson we have no creativity from the middle of the park. No matter how good our strikers are if we don’t give them the service they need they won’t score goals.
Beckford and Vaughan aren't getting the service to allow them to cause damage

What about the manager?

Grayson did brilliantly to get us promoted. He tinkered with the team leading up to the playoffs to find our best team, and then he had faith in that team when it mattered to see us over the finishing line, which they did. We knew reinforcements were needed and we got them in Dixon, Lynch, Gerrard, Clayton, Southern, Norwood, Scannell and Vaughan, and then later Hammill and Beckford.

His team started well, playing attractive football in a losing effort against Cardiff on the opening night of the season and continuing throughout the first couple of months. Norwood, Clayton and Southern looked like the midfield we’d always wanted and we didn't seem to be missing Jordan Rhodes. Dixon solved the problem we've always had at left back and in defence as previously mentioned we looked okay.

Not now though. The defence is changing every week, with the most surprising decision Grayson makes every week being to not play Dixon. Woods, Lynch and more recently Wallace have all been played at left back instead of a left back with senior international experience this season. Team selections have become baffling, with changes every week, people playing out of position and no consistency whatsoever which certainly can’t help the team.

That’s before we even get to the style of football we’re currently playing. The nice little triangles in the middle of the park have disappeared. Adam Clayton has for me been our player of the season so far but his job these days is mostly to look overhead as the ball flies over him from defence to attack. Hoof the ball forward to their defence and then prepare for them to come at us, that’s all we do at the minute.
Graysons team selections are becoming more baffling by the week

What is the answer?

There isn't a straight forward answer. I think Grayson deserves time, but does he deserve money to spend? The team we have now was good enough earlier this season so should really still be good enough now. The fact that they’re not performing, and the dire brand of football they’re putting on display, comes down to the manager. It doesn't matter how much we spend, if Grayson makes them play the way we are currently new players won’t make any difference.

If we stick with Grayson, which I think we should, then we have to go back to playing football. Get the ball on the deck, down the wings and into the feet of our strikers. We got results when we tried to play the right way, we’re not getting results now we've resorted to a long ball game – that’s all the evidence you need. If we have to sign a more creative midfielder to allow us to do this then let’s sign him, but the key thing is that we start playing football again.

Grayson also has to trust his players. Pick a winger and give him a run of games, stop playing Ward one week then Scannell the next, play one or both of them, but let them have a run in the team to show what they can do. Same with the defence - pick a back five, preferably with Dixon at left back, and let them play together – consistency is massively important at the back.

Whatever happens from here it won’t be easy. 10 games without a win and performances are getting worse not better, there isn't a simple way to stop the rot. We have a brilliant opportunity to get things back on track next Saturday when we play Birmingham. Play football and win the game and we can start thinking about pulling clear of the dog fight, lose and Grayson could well be on his way out while we’ll be in the thick of it.