Thursday 29 November 2012

Leeds United (h) preview - Old faces

This weekend sees the first West Yorkshire derby of the season as Town play host Leeds United. The match was originally meant to be televised live on Sky Sports on Friday night but following events at Hillsborough in October the match will now be a lunchtime kick off on Saturday. A volatile atmosphere is always expected for this fixture but the managerial history of the two men on the touchline this weekend makes it even more intense.

In the home dugout will be Simon Grayson who only three years ago guided Leeds to promotion from League One, while in the away dugout will be Neil Warnock who achieved promotion with Huddersfield way back in 1995. Both were at one time adored by fans who will be cheering for their opponents this weekend and it will be very interesting to see the reception each manager receives.

Both Grayson and Warnock achieved success when managing the clubs they will face this weekend. Warnock took over at Town in 1993 and the following season guided us to promotion by beating Bristol Rovers at Wembley. Grayson was appointed United manager at the very end of 2008 and after losing out in the playoffs that campaign got Leeds promoted in second place the following season, beating Bristol Rovers who really don't seem to have much luck against West Yorkshire opposition.
Simon Grayson has a better record than Neil Warnock statistically at both clubs
It's fair to say that both clubs had differing ambitions coming into this season. It's all about consolidation for Town, maintaining Championship status while building solid foundations that can be built upon. United have much loftier ambitions however and Warnock has been very vocal about their need to win promotion back to the Premier League sooner rather than later. The club statement when Grayson was sacked read:
"We have 18 games to go this season and are still within touching distance of the playoffs, but felt with the transfer window now closed we needed to make the change at this time in the belief that a new managerial team will be able to get more out of the existing squad of players and make the difference."
Things didn't exactly go to plan however. Leeds were four points away from the playoffs when Grayson was sacked but finished the season 14 points away from the playoffs. It's fair to say then that the appointment of Warnock didn't do what United had hoped in the short-term, but the long-term result is yet to be seen. This season hadn't exactly gone to plan originally but after good back to back home wins against high flying Crystal Palace and Leicester confidence is starting to emerge.
Luciano Becchio scored the winner against Leicester to take his tally for the season to 12 goals
Despite winning their last two league matches Leeds have still only won two away matches this season, and haven't won away from Elland Road since September. Luciano Becchio is in decent form at the minute having scored in both of Leeds recent wins. His 12 goals this season treble the four of our top goalscorer, Lee Novak. Becchio and El Hadji Diouf will cause our defence problems, with one offering a physical threat and the other being very skilful with the ball at his feet.

Town actually have a decent record against our West Yorkshire rivals in recent years. Since we were thumped 4-0 at Elland Road in 2007 we've managed to stay unbeaten in the last five encounters between the two clubs, and we're unbeaten in 11 games on home turf, a record dating back to 1963. We'll be hoping that record continues on Saturday, and it could be players competing against their former clubs who make the difference.

Three players could step out to face former team-mates this weekend, with Lee Peltier actually captaining Leeds since signing from Leicester in the summer. For the home team Adam Clayton is certain to start and will have a point to prove to Neil Warnock who deemed the midfielder surplus to requirements when he took over. Less likely to start is former United top goalscorer Jermaine Beckford who's missed Towns last three matches and remains a doubt.
Jermaine Beckford is battling to be fit to face his former club
If the loanee from Leicester fails in his fitness test Town fans will be hoping James Vaughan, on loan from Norwich, will be passed fit to play. Without these two in recent weeks we've looked woefully weak up front. Lee Novak and Simon Church been the preferred pairing (usually in a 4-5-1 system), with Alan lee being utilised from the bench. That lack of ability up top has seen us fail to win in our last three games, and many fear we'll fail to win again if we have to rely on Novak and Church.

I'm a subscriber to that theory - I fail to see how we can defeat an in-form Leeds side in a feisty West Yorkshire derby without any real fire-power up  front. However, the boost the team will receive if either, or better yet both, are miraculously passed fit for the match could be enough to see us on to three points. The results with Beckford or Vaughan compared to the results, and performances, without them show that we are much better when one or both are in the starting line-up.

Town remain without Keith Southern but Clayton returning after serving his one game suspension is a boost. The former Leeds player has been our outstanding performer this season and will likely be partnered by Oliver Norwood in the middle, but Norwood himself has been well below par recently. Danny Ward has earned the right to start on the left while I'd play Scott Arfield on the right as he has a proven partnership with Jack Hunt and can play narrow to support Norwood and Clayton.
The three formations above show the team I'd select in the scenarios of a) Vaughan and Beckford being fit, b) one of the two being fit, and c) neither being fit. The likely scenario is (c) which would for me see Alan Lee given his first start of the season as he's the only forward we have outside of Vaughan and Beckford who can hold the ball up properly. I'd play 4-4-2 if either or both are fit, but if neither are fit I'd play a more cautious 4-5-1. Far from ideal, but needs must.

As said above, we have a great chance of taking three points if either or both of our absent front men return, but without them we'll again be up against it. My prediction is that neither will be fit, and as such I don't think we'll have the strength up front necessary to win the match. The best case scenario without them would be to stay organised and try grind out a result, with Alan Lee hopefully offering a much better physical presence up front than either Novak or Church are capable of.

The only thing for certain heading into this weekends match is that there will be plenty of hostility in the stands leading to a vibrant atmosphere, and there will be some big challenges on the pitch to add to the occasion. It should be a brilliant West Yorkshire derby bursting with passion, but whether or not we can come out of it with three points is yet to be seen.

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