Tuesday 22 January 2013

#GraysonOut? Who in?

#GraysonOut was appearing on my Twitter timeline before Saturdays defeat to Watford, but since that 4-0 humbling it is appearing a lot more. The hammering we took at Vicarage Road was our sixth defeat in 12 matches, but more damning is the fact that we haven't won any of the other six matches in that period. It's not the results which have Town fans worried about the potential of relegation, it's more the dreadful performances and lack of any sign of improvement.

Football fans are notoriously fickle - win one week and you're a hero but lose the next week and they'll be baying for blood. However, if you fail to win for two whole months, or more specifically 12 league matches, there is little hope for you. 12 games is a quarter of a season - in no sport would you be able to go a quarter of a season without a win and not be under pressure.

Simon Grayson is a man under pressure. The fans know it, and now he's acknowledged it himself. The most concerning thing about our twelve match winless run is that we've never really looked like winning of those games, and the performances have been nowhere near good enough. Luckily for Grayson his chairman Dean Hoyle seems to tolerate bad performances as Lee Clark was allowed to keep his job for a long time while performances were very poor.

Clark was eventually sacked when Hoyle confirmed he had "lost faith in his ability to win promotion", so it's sensible to think that Grayson will be sacked when his boss loses faith in his ability to avoid relegation. Town currently sit seven points above the relegation zone with 33 points, but with only 6 points and a goal difference of -17 in our last 12 games it's difficult to see where the next win will come from. Our fixtures don't get any easier either, our next six matches are all against teams above us in the league.

If we are still winless after those six matches I don't think Grayson will be afforded any more time to turn things around. We've made huge losses in recent years and promotion to the Championship was part of a long-term vision to make the club self-sustainable - we simply can't afford to get relegated. It will cost Hoyle if he decided to sack his second manager in 12 months, but that cost would be fractional compared to the cost of relegation to England's third tier, where we spent seven consecutive seasons before that Wembley win in May.

So let's say Grayson doesn't turn things around, after all there is currently nothing to suggest he will. When we sacked Clark most fans wanted Warnock but we instead turned to former Leeds manager Grayson, who to his credit got us promoted at the first time of asking, lest we forget. This time around I've picked out three managers who would be popular appointments, to me at least:
The number one choice for pretty much every Town fan would be the man recently sacked in bizarre circumstances by Southampton, Nigel Adkins. He certainly has the most impressive CV out of all the potential candidates. Two League Of Wales titles with Bangor City, two promotions in three years (relegation separated them) with Scunthorpe United, and successive promotions with Southampton which took them from League One to the Premier League in just two seasons (they were also three points above the relegation zone when he was sacked).

His teams are known for playing football the right way, playing attractive possession football whenever possible. This is something that will definitely excite Town fans at the minute given the hoof and hope style of play we've adopted over the past few months. A win record of more than 50% over a ten year managerial career, and four promotions in six seasons managing in England, certainly have him as most Town fans ideal candidate to take up the reigns should Grayson be dismissed. Whether he could be tempted to come here now his stock is so high is open to debate.
Once Adkins is out of the equation it becomes a bit more difficult to find an ideal replacement. I've seen plenty of names mentioned but many to me seem unappealing. For me we have to get someone who has experience at this level, which rules out lower league manager such as Paul Tisdale who many have taken a liking to. For me the next best man for the job would be Billy Davies, who does indeed have plenty of experience managing in the Championship. We need a bit of fight right now and a manager who can motivate the players, Davies could be that man.

After departing Motherwell in 2002 Davies moved south to manage Preston North End, where he overachieved by taking them to the playoffs in consecutive seasons. After leaving Preston for Derby County Davies again overachieved by getting them promoted to the Premier League. Derby had a woeful season in the top flight and Davies left by mutual consent after 14 games before returning to management with Nottingham Forest. Davies was sacked by Forest in 2011 after taking them to the playoffs but failing to win promotion in consecutive seasons.
Okay, I did just say we shouldn't appoint a manager without Championship experience, and Di Canio has only managed in Leagues One and Two, but for him I'll bend the rules. The Italian, who is best known for his playing days in the Premier League (although he also played for Italian giants Juventus and Milan), is doing a very good job currently at Swindon. Although it's hard to see him getting on with businessman and Town chairman Dean Hoyle, there's no denying he's the type who could get a reaction from our players where Grayson is currently failing.

One of the key contributors to our current terrible form is our ability to surrender matches feebly without a fight. We can look okay one minute but as soon as we concede one goal it could end up three, four, five or six. Di Canio wouldn't have that - Swindon won League Two last season with the best defence in the division and currently sit third in League One with the best defence in the division. A win record of 58.2%, a history of keeping things solid at the back, and the ability to motivate - just what Town need.

For Grayson to be dismissed Hoyle will first have to lose faith in his current managers ability to keep us in the Championship, but if performances remain the same it won't be much longer before that happens. If Grayson isn't the man to stop the rot, Dean will have two incredibly tough decisions to make. First dismissing his second manager in 12 months, then finding a replacement.

1 comment:

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