Monday 11 February 2013

The Championship - A league that makes no sense and a relegation battle that's impossible to predict

Town's first home game of the season was against Nottingham Forest. It was our first game on home soil in the second tier of English football for 12 years, and the gulf in class between League One and The Championship was obvious. Forest were organised, played it along the deck and attacked at pace. In reality they deserved to win comprehensively, but we managed to sneak a 1-1 draw with a late penalty.


Fast forward six months and a team that looked so good currently lie in mid-table. Although a Playoff push isn't yet out of the question it isn't where I expected them to be. More surprising perhaps is that they haven't just replaced the man who was in charge that night, but they've replaced his replacement as well. Forest have dropped five places and won only once in seven matches since sacking Sean O'Driscoll, and in the same space of time Alex McLeish arrived and departed before Billy Davies returned for a second spell as manager.
Forest might be a special kind of ridiculous, but they represent the unpredictability of The Championship perfectly. To make things even sweeter, O'Driscoll's Bristol City beat Davies' Nottingham Forest this past weekend. In fact, the bottom three teams all won at the weekend against opposition who started the day in the top half of the table. £1 on Peterborough, Bristol City and Barnsley all winning would have brought you at least £50, that's how unpredictable this league is.

Town started the season by performing above all expectations, winning four of our first seven matches and sitting second in the table. However, since we beat Blackpool to go second back in September we've won five of our last 24 matches, and only one in our last 13. That great start is long forgotten, Simon Grayson has been dismissed and Dean Hoyle is currently looking for a new manager. With such dire form and the second worst goal difference in the league it will take something special to turn this sinking ship around.
We're not the only team to have started the season well only to struggle as the season has gone on. Stale Solbakken made a solid enough start to his tenure at Wolves and they were sixth in the league after seven games. This past weekend however they were in the bottom three until a late, late Danny Batth goal earned them a point against Leeds. Wolves are dropping quicker than Town are, having won only one of their last ten and failing to win any of Dean Saunders' five games since he took over following Solbakken's sacking.

So there are teams suddenly picking results up out of nowhere and teams who are seemingly in freefall. That would suggest that Huddersfield and Wolves will go down while Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday will survive because they've hit a purple patch. It's not that simple, in this league anyone can beat anyone and it's consistency that will eventually reap rewards, but that's not to say the form of some teams amidst the relegation struggle isn't impressive.

Sheffield Wednesday would be promotion contenders had they performed throughout the season like they have in the last couple of months. The Owls have lost only one of their last ten matches and have won six of those games. Not only are they getting results, but they've also strengthened, bringing in Leroy Lita and Connor Wickham, while Town have yet to venture into the loan market, although Hoyle has promised he will bring someone in if needed.

Barnsley are another team who not long since were doomed to spending next season in League One. They sacked Keith Hill just before the new year and then suffered the embarrassment of a seemingly endless list of candidates publicly refusing to replace him. In the end assistant manager David Flitcroft took the reigns and he's kick-started their survival effort. The Tykes have won only nine matches all season, and four of those have been in their last five games.
Town will be hoping the new manager effect will work as well for us as it has for Barnsley. Dean Saunders hasn't managed to improve Wolves fortunes but one manager who has breathed new life into a team is Mick McCarthy at Ipswich Town. They started the season in terrible form and had won only one of 13 games before McCarthy took charge, but have since won eight of their last 18 games to give themselves a great chance of maintaining their Championship status.

Three points separate six teams between Bolton in 17th and Barnsley in 22nd. So surely the two teams cut adrift in the bottom two places are certain to be relegated? Not quite. Bristol City have won three of their last four league games with O'Driscoll as manager and Peterborough have won five of their last nine matches, losing only two of those games. Nobody wants to go down, and all the teams down at the bottom are doing everything they can to avoid the drop.

Even Blackpool, Charlton and Birmingham are only six points above the relegation zone. It's incredibly tough to predict who will go down this season because The Championship very rarely makes sense. Some teams are in freefall and some teams are hitting form, but you wouldn't bet against a Wolves win and Barnsley defeat next weekend.

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