Barnsley (H) - Who's for the drop?

45 games, 4,050 minutes, 243,000 seconds (plus stoppage time). The aim for both Barnsley and Town at the beginning of the season was survival. That never changed for the Tykes while we had a brief dream of more early in the season, but it’s certainly the aim for both clubs this weekend. Both clubs have experienced manager changes during a season that has once again proven the Championship is one of the most competitive and dramatic leagues in the world. With both clubs facing the very real threat of League One football next season, it now comes down to a Yorkshire derby shoot-out on a dramatic final day of the season.

The implications of relegation
The Championship has for my money been the most exciting league in the world this season. At the beginning of April, with only 6 games remaining for most teams, there were still 14 clubs fearing the drop. Peterborough in 23^rd place were only six points behind Millwall in 11^th place, and the Lions, who had two games in hand on most clubs at that time, are now one of seven teams who could end up in one of the last two remaining relegation spots. Bristol City are already consigned to League One football next season, while the other two spots will be taken by two of Wolves, Barnsley, Peterborough, Millwall, Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield.

Not only will the teams relegated miss out on playing in one of the most exciting leagues in the world, but they'll also face a huge financial loss. Barnsley General Manager Dan Rowing last week said "We believe that with the loss of gates and solidarity monies and such that we will lose between five and six million of our turnover". With Tykes owner Patrick Cryne making no secret of his intent to sell the club, it would be a much tougher proposition to do so in League One. While Huddersfield owner Dean Hoyle has already stated he would not be looking to sell the club in the event of relegation, he would certainly feel the financial impact after putting so much of his own money into the clubs promotion efforts in the past few seasons.

Skybet odds for relegation:

Wolves 1/50; Barnsley 4/6; Peterborough 6/4; Sheffield Wednesday 10/1; Millwall 14/1; Huddersfield 20/1

Wolves are favourites for the drop as they need to win away at promotion hopefuls Brighton on the last day while hoping neither Barnsley or Peterborough pick up points. Barnsley will be relegated if they lose, or if they fail to better Peterborough’s result. Millwall and Sheffield Wednesday need to equal or better the results of Barnsley and Peterborough, while Town will be relegated if they lose to Barnsley while the other three teams all win. Blackburn can no longer be relegated because Huddersfield and Barnsley are playing each other while Wolves can't catch them.

How have we ended up here?
Back in September we travelled to promotion favourites Blackpool and won 3-1 to leapfrog them into second place after seven games. At that point we started to dream a little, nobody got carried away but it wasn’t unthinkable that we could perhaps push for a top half finish or even a playoff place. We were still looking good in November as a 1-0 win away at Barnsley kept us in a playoff spot, 14 points clear of the relegation zone. However, after that game at Oakwell we went on a miserable run of 12 games without a win, at the end of which we’d dropped to 18^th place and were only seven points in front of the bottom three.

That win came under the stewardship of Mark Lillis as Simon Grayson was sacked after a 12th consecutive game without a win. Lillis took control of three league games and earned a very respectable four points, but he was never going to be a long-term solution. Instead on Valentines Day we appointed Mark Robins as manager, poaching him from Coventry City where he had done a great job in difficult circumstances. His first task was to shore up a leaky defence, and despite hammerings against Forest and Brighton early into his reign he's managed that as we've conceded one or less in nine of our last 10 games. We've also started scoring more goals, and three wins in our last four matches have seen us move three points clear of the relegation zone at the perfect time.

Barnsley also started the season in decent form. They were favourites to be relegated before the season started but after seven games they were in mid-table with 10 points. At that time Peterborough were rock bottom having lost all seven of their games, showing just how impressive it is that they might yet survive. While Peterborough improved, Barnsley dropped worryingly and by the end of 2012 they were bottom of the league and looking in serious trouble. Keith Hill was sacked on 29 December and an embarrassing couple of weeks followed as potential candidates to replace him publicly stated their preference to reject the job. Hill's assistant manager David Flitcroft had steadied the ship following his departure and was eventually given the job on a permanent basis.

It's difficult to explain just how well Flitcroft has done since taking the reigns at Oakwell. If the league had started when he was appointed Barnsley would be in fifth place, while Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday would both be in the top 10. It's therefore quite hard to understand how all three teams go into the final game of the season facing potential relegation. Barnsley have taken 33 points from 20 games in 2013 yet head into this weekends match taking the final relegation spot despite beating second placed Hull last time out. If they drop into League One this weekend on their current points total then Barnsley will set a new record for the most points in a season for a club relegated from The Championship.

It will be an unwanted record, but one that is certain to be broken this weekend. Each team who could mathematically be relegated on Saturday has already accumulated more points than any relegated team in the last 10 years. This season has been so unpredictable that Town currently have 57 points, a tally that would have seen us finish 17 points above the relegation zone last season. In fact in seven of the last 10 seasons we would have finished at least 10 points clear of the drop zone, with the closest total to 57 in that period being Leicester City's 52 points in the 2007/08 season. Whoever takes that last relegation spot this year will have the unwanted consolation that they've been relegated from the toughest season in English football second tier's history. 

That night in 2006 and Mark Robins

Both teams were promoted to The Championship via the playoffs, and via penalties, with Barnsley beating Swansea City at the Millenium Stadium in 2006 while we beat Sheffield United at Wembley last May. After seven seasons in League One it's unthinkable for Town fans that we might end up there again next season, facing unwanted trips to Crawley and Shrewsbury. However, Barnsley fans don't want to make those journeys either, and the away end is already sold out for this weekends match as the travelling South Yorkshire contingent have far from given up hope that they will be playing Championship football again next season. They will no doubt take hope from the fact that the last time they visited the Galpharm Stadium they overturned a 1-0 first leg deficit to book their place in the playoff final which they went on to win.

That night was Monday 15th May 2006, and until Old Trafford a couple of years ago it was the most painful day in recent memory for Town fans. We did lose a second leg against Millwall in 2010, but that was a game not many expected us to win. We'd already done the hard part in 2006 though, as Gary Taylor-Fletcher had given us a vital 1-0 away win at Oakwell. Things went awry in the second leg as goals from Paul Hayes (from the penalty spot despite a foul clearly outside the area), Paul Reid and Daniel Nardiello were enough to give Barnsley a 3-1 win on the night and 3-2 on aggregate. The hero in the playoff final would be Nick Colgan who is currently employed by Town, and the manager who masterminded that playoff success was Andy Ritchie who would later have an ill-fated spell in West Yorkshire.

Ritchie and Colgan aren't the only ones to end up in Huddersfield after spells at Barnsley. Current Town gaffer Mark Robins was in charge at Oakwell for the better part of two seasons before leaving in exceptional circumstances in 2011. When Robins took over at Barnsley in September 2009 they were bottom of the league and favourites for relegation, but by Christmas they were nine points clear of the drop zone and finished the season safe. He kept them up when most expected them to go down again the following season, but resigned following differences with the board. After rebuilding his reputation at Coventry this season he's transformed our fortunes and is close to keeping us in The Championship which would go down as another great achievement for the former Manchester United striker.

Not many managers get the chance to relegate a former club, but Robins has that chance this weekend. He knows that if he beats his old employers on Saturday then they will be playing League One football next season. The same thing he avoided in his two year stint as manager at Barnsley he could inflict upon them. - relegation. Robins will no doubt feel an affiliation to his old club, but at the same time he will still feel wronged by the board, after all he left in strange circumstances after disagreements with the higher-ups at Oakwell. What a strange twist of fate then that he could now get the ultimate revenge for any perceived wrong doing by condemning Barnsley to League One football next season.

My line-up

Robins opted to play 4-5-1 when he first took charge but since steadying a leaky defence he's reverted to a more offensive 4-4-2 system. Jermaine Beckford and James Vaughan had shown signs of a promising partnership earlier in the season, and again recently having both suffered injuries earlier in the season. Beckford missed out on Saturday due to a thigh strain but it's hoped he could be fit again for this weekend. Oliver Norwood and Oscar Gobern have also developed a good partnership in midfield while Peter Clarke and Anthony Gerrard, despite looking clumsy have overseen our most productive defensive performances in recent months. The team currently picks itself which is a refreshing change from the end of the Grayson era, so my team for our final game of the season, but hopefully not our final game in The Championship, would be as below:

No predictions. No excuses.

I'm not making any predictions for this weekends match. In an ideal world I'd like all three Yorkshire teams to survive with Peterborough going down, but that's just too risky to wish for. Despite being unbearable to watch at times, this season has been one of my favourite following Town. The drama has been unrivalled and it's been great to watch better teams in better stadia compared to the previous seven seasons in League One, and League Two before that. I can simply hope that we are still in The Championship next season, otherwise this summer will be just as depressing as the one that followed the Old Trafford debacle.

Both teams will look at certain moments this season and think they could have gone a different way. Town will look at that 12 game run without a win, penalty appeals at Bolton and Blackburn, and missed opportunities on home soil against Sheffield Wednesday, Peterborough and Charlton. Barnsley could rue not sacking Keith Hill earlier than they did given the turnaround since his departure (likewise us with Grayson), Derby's last minute equaliser at Oakwell not long ago, and numerous home defeats against teams they will have expected to take points from. None of those things matter anymore though, and both teams have a chance to secure their Championship status this weekend. It's all come down to this - one game, 90 minutes, 5,400 seconds (plus stoppage time).