Wednesday 10 April 2013

Wolves v Huddersfield preview

Town travel to Molineux this weekend for the first of the five games we have left to maintain our Championship status. With Blackburn, Millwall, Bristol City and Barnsley to follow, all our remaining fixtures offer us a great opportunity to take points away from relegation rivals. With only six points seperating Peterborough in 23rd and Birmingham in 13th, it's vital that teams at the bottom start winning games to close the gap on the the teams above them.

Despite being touted as promotion favourites at the beginning of the season, Wolves find themselves firmly in the relegation battle. They started the season well but plummeted alarmingly at the end of 2012, and didn't start 2013 any better as they failed to win a game until March. That run saw them go 12 games without a win, a feat matched only by Town who failed to claim three points between November and the end of January. It's those long spells without a win that leave both clubs sitting precariously above the drop zone and facing the very real possibility of League One football next season.
With both teams desperate to avoid relegation, they decided to change manager earlier in the season. Stale Solbakken was dismissed by Wolves after only six months in charge when they were 18th in the league. Although they were six points above the drop zone at the time of his departure they were dropping quick and had won only three of their last 16 league games. Town sacked Simon Grayson less than 12 months after appointing him as manager having gone 12 games without a win.

Dean Saunders was the man chosen to replace Solbakken, and despite going nine league games without a win upon taking charge he seems to have finally made the desired impact. Wolves have won four out of seven games since March, taking a very good 13 points from a possible 21 in that period. After going 12 games without a win before his appointment, Mark Robins has improved Town's fortunes with three wins in his first 10 games at the helm.

Wolves head into this weekends as favourites as they're third in the current Championship form table and unbeaten in their previous three home games. Town on the other hand have failed to win their last three games, but travel to Molineux in decent spirits having improved for recent matches against Bolton and Peterborough. Both teams currently have 48 points and popular consensus indicates 55 will be needed to guarantee survival, meaning wins will be needed to amass those vital seven points.
The last time Town played Wolves was in October earlier this season at the Galpharm Stadium. Goals from James Vaughan and Jermaine Beckford were enough to earn us three points, with Sylvan Ebanks-Blake getting a consolation for the away team. It's a sign of how much both teams have underperformed since then that a win on that day moved Town above Wolves into third place, just two points behind top of the league with 11 games played. Town had amassed 20 points from 11 games at that point, but have managed only 28 points from 30 games since.

As well as the last meeting between the two teams ending favourably for Town, recent matches at Molineux have also gone the way of the Yorkshire team. The last time we experienced defeat at Wolverhampton was in November 1988. Since that defeat we've visited Molineux six times without defeat, winning two games and drawing four. The most recent game away from Huddersfield saw a solitary Delroy Facey strike earn us a 1-0 win. Recent history is certainly on the side of Town heading into this weekends massive match.

Throughout the years there have been some big scorelines when we've played Wolves, with most of those games going the way of the midlanders. Twice Wolves have won 6-4 at Molineux, and between 1948 and 1951 they thrashed us 7-1 on three occasions. Overall Town have won one less game than Wolves when the two teams have met, with us managing 28 wins, Wolves 29, while there have been 12 stalemates. Despite our recent good form at Molineux, our opponents this weekend have the overall better record as they've won 19 games out of 34, scoring 89 goals in the process.
Although they've averaged 2.62 goals per game against Town at Molineux, Wolves head into this weekends encounter without their leading goalscorer. Sylvan Ebanks-Blake, who also scored in the meeting between the two teams earlier this season, looks set to miss the rest of the season with a broken leg. It's good news for Town that our opponents are missing their leading goal threat as no team in the Championship has managed to score fewer goals than us - we've managed a paltry 42 goals in 41 games.

With our attack being the least effective in the league, it's even more damning for Town that we also have the worst goal difference in the league. It currently stands at -26 and effectively gives us one less point than everyone else in the Championship, not good when in the middle of a relegation battle. That dire goal difference is largely a result of some large defeats away from home. We've conceded three or more goals on eight different occasions this season, conceding six against Leicester and Nottingham Forest, resulting in the worst away defensive record in the league - 44 goals have been shipped in 20 matches.

Town have also gone seven games without keeping a clean sheet, and haven't scored three in a game since September. Wolves have also failed to stop their opponents from scoring in their last five meetings, so perhaps our low-scoring strikers could cause some damage. However, with both teams fighting for their lives form and statistics could go out of the window on Saturday afternoon. Both sets of supporters will want to see quality, but fight and passion are just as important as the season draws to a close.
Town have no fresh injury worries ahead of this weekend, with Anthony Gerrard, Jack Hunt and Danny Ward all battling to be fit having missed the game against Peterborough. If fit I'd put Hunt and Ward back into the team in place of Woods and Arfield at right back and on the right wing. Even back at full fitness I'd leave Gerrard on the bench as I think Murray Wallace deserves to keep his place after a decent performance on Saturday. The only other change I'd make is to bring Adam Clayton back into the team to replace Norwood, with the former Leeds midfielder having served his two game suspension.

I always favour 4-5-1 away from home, and this weekend is no different. I do think Jermaine Beckford has been harshly criticised by many Town fans during his loan spell, but I'd keep him on the bench again for this game. James Vaughan is capable of scoring and offers us much needed work-rate up front, while Ward and Scannell are the only natural wingers available to Mark Robins. With Keith Southern still not ready to return to first team duties, Gobern and Danns will be the two deep lying midfielders behind the more creative Clayton.

If last weekends game was make or break, the same can certainly be said about this weekend. Things are so close at the bottom of the Championship that a win for either team on Saturday could move them four points clear of the drop zone, while a defeat could see them drop to second bottom. Although I do think these next two games are the easiest we have remaining, we can take nothing for granted and Town will have to be at their best to send another impressive away following home happy.

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